证券金融论文：脱离杠杆作用要走多远?How Far Will Deleveraging Go?[1]

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关键字：Go Deleveraging Will Far How 多远 要走 杠杆作用 脱离
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Credit will still have to shrink to keep leverage at precrisis levels.

信贷仍然不得不紧缩以维持危机前的杠杆作用

By DAVID ROCHE

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The global economy is in recession. Will this lead to depression? And if not, how long and deep will the recession be? The answers to both questions depend on the extent of deleveraging by financial institutions.

全球经济在衰退中。衰退会导致萧条吗？如果不会，那么这种衰退会持续多长和多深？这两个问题的答案全都依赖于金融机构摆脱杠杆作用的程度。

The amount of risk-free or "tier-one" capital a bank is holding is a good reverse indicator of how leveraged it is. Globally, financial institutions had about $5 trillion of tier-one capital on the eve of the credit crisis. Those in the United States and European Union had about $3.3 trillion of tier-one capital supporting a loan book of some $43 trillion.

银行持有的无风险或“一级”资本的数目是一个很好的反面指标，说明了杠杆是如何作用的。全球的金融机构在信贷危机前夕拥有大约5万亿美元的一级资本。美国和欧盟的金融机构持有大约3.3万亿美元的一级资本以支持若干43万亿美元的贷款帐簿。

Then came the crisis.于是危机就出现了。

How much did they lose? There are three answers. If mark-to-market rules are applied, global financial sector losses are estimated to amount to 85% of tier-one capital. But mark-to-market rules are extreme and assume the banks are insolvent and that all their assets will have to be fire-sold for whatever they can fetch in today's dysfunctional markets.

银行损失了多少呢？有三种答案。如果按“市值计价规则”，全球金融部门损失估计占一级资本总额的85%。但是，“市值计价规则”是个极端，并且可推测银行无力偿还，也就是他们的资产在今天市场作用失调的情况下能够得到的是不得不被“火卖”。

If economic value, a concept based on the present value of future cash flows of the assets, is used instead, current losses are about half the amount calculated using mark-to-market rules.

如果运用经济价值，也就是运用“资产期货现金流量的现值”的这一概念，那么运用“市值计价规则”计算，目前的损失大约是总额的一半。

Finally, if we use only the losses that have been recognized by the institutions themselves so far, we are a touch short of $700 billion.

最后，如果我们只采用机构截止目前业已认同的损失，我们就感到少了七千亿美元。

Despite these losses, the loan books of banks have grown, not s证券金融论文